Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) Stock Price Prediction: 2025, 2026, 2030

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The post Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) Stock Price Prediction: 2025, 2026, 2030 by Ryan Peterson appeared first on Benzinga. Visit Benzinga to get more great content like this.

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Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) is currently navigating a fluctuating semiconductor capital expenditure environment while positioning itself to benefit from hardware demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI), sending shares on a volatile ride with recent post-earnings plunges followed by year-to-date gains. The company’s efforts to expand production tool offerings are being overshadowed by weak guidance and China exposure concerns, creating choppy trading patterns that reflect investor uncertainty. 

In this article, we’ll review AMAT’s current price and valuation, examine price-target forecasts through 2030, analyze Wall Street’s latest sentiment, and break down the bullish and bearish outlooks shaping the stock’s risk/reward proposition.

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Current AMAT Stock Overview

• Market Cap: $160.48 billion
• Trailing P/E: 24.04
• Forward P/E: 20.66
• 1 Year Return: +2%
• YTD Return: +24%

Shares of Applied Materials are trading around $200 as of late September 2025. The stock has seen moderate gains this year, supported by steady demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Shares recently traded near their 52-week high of about $216 but remain below an all-time peak of around $252 set in mid-2024. Trading breadth remains robust amid mixed macroeconomic signals impacting semiconductor capital expenditure (capex) cycles.

Applied Materials continues to invest in AI-optimized manufacturing tools that cater to chipmakers scaling up advanced node production. However, concerns over weak China demand, geopolitical tensions, and tariffs continue to loom. The company has taken steps to mitigate tariff-related costs, especially within its U.S. operations, which softens some downside risks, but supply chain cost pressures are still a concern.

Based on the ratings of 28 analysts, Applied Materials is a consensus Hold with a price target of about $197, according to Benzinga. The highest target among recent coverage is $230, issued by TD Cowen in November 2024, while the lowest is $165 from Susquehanna last January. The three most recent targets from Keybanc, Morgan Stanley, and Mizuho average $201, suggesting an implied upside of under 1% from the current trading price based on those specific analyses.

Quick Snapshot Table of Predictions

The forecast range in this table is based on algorithmic projections provided by CoinCodex. These models use historical price trends, volatility patterns, and moving averages to estimate future stock prices over multiple time horizons.

Bull & Bear Case

Applied Materials operates under cyclical capex demand but benefits from growing semiconductor manufacturing trends, especially those linked to AI and advanced process nodes.

Bull Case

• Demand for advanced equipment required for gate-all-around (GAA) transistors and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is surging. 
• Applied Materials’ investment in new process technologies positions it to capture a large share of the AI hardware capex from major chipmakers.
• The company offers a highly diversified portfolio of equipment beyond lithography, covering deposition, etch, and metrology. 
• Applied Materials’ Applied Global Services (AGS) segment provides steady, high-margin revenue through maintenance and optimization services. 
• While geopolitical limits have temporarily affected its AGS segment in China, the overall long-term need for maintenance on existing, increasingly complex equipment provides a stable financial floor.
• Global efforts to localize semiconductor manufacturing will necessitate large, sustained investments in new fabrication plants (fabs) and equipment, benefiting Applied Materials regardless of where production shifts.

Bear Case

• Ongoing and tightening U.S. export controls on sales of advanced equipment to China pose a serious, non-cyclical risk. 
• An estimated $400 million revenue hit in 2025 as a result of export controls demonstrates the direct and immediate financial impact of government trade policies.
• Any global economic slowdown could lead chipmakers to abruptly cut or postpone equipment orders, leading to sharp revenue declines and stock price drops, as seen in previous downturns.
• The Chinese market is undergoing a period of “capacity digestion” for certain chip types, leading to a temporary slowdown in equipment purchases. 
• Chinese domestic equipment makers, backed by massive state subsidies, are increasing their market share in mature nodes, potentially displacing foreign suppliers like Applied Materials over the long term.
• Beyond export controls, the prospect of new reciprocal tariffs being imposed on finished semiconductor products could increase the cost of goods for Applied Materials’ customers, indirectly slowing capital spending and adding another layer of macroeconomic friction to the business.

AMAT Stock Price Prediction for 2025

According to CoinCodex in 2025, Applied Materials’ stock may experience some short-term pullbacks before rebounding toward year-end. Overall, forecasts indicate an average price near current levels by December 2025. This expected movement aligns with Applied Materials’ ability to meet demand for AI-centric chip production tools, despite some near-term market headwinds from supply chain and geopolitical concerns.

AMAT Stock Price Prediction for 2026

For 2026, AMAT’s price forecast spans a broader range. January might be the strongest month forecasted, with double-digit gains seen as the company ramps production and capitalizes on technology investments. A widened price channel reflects uncertainties in semiconductor spending cycles and external risks, balanced by long-term growth drivers and Applied Materials’ market position.

AMAT Stock Price Prediction for 2030

Looking to 2030, Applied Materials shares are anticipated to see steady growth. This long-term bullish view is supported by the ongoing growth in semiconductor manufacturing complexity, AI-enabled chip designs, and capital investment trends. Investors might expect a substantial return from current levels by 2030, assuming sustained technology leadership and favorable industry conditions.

Investment Considerations

Investors should carefully weigh the risks associated with global semiconductor capital capex cycles against the technological necessity of Applied Materials’ products. The company’s financial health is intrinsically linked to the spending habits of its foundry, logic, and memory customers. When those companies delay or cut their capital budgets, Applied Materials’ revenue takes an immediate hit, often leading to rapid stock price corrections. While AI investments are driving unprecedented high demand for specialized equipment, Applied Materials still sells to segments that are prone to oversupply corrections and cyclical downturns, meaning a swift deceleration in orders is an ever-present risk that must be factored into any investment horizon.

Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions represent a significant and evolving headwind, requiring careful monitoring by investors. Recent U.S. export controls have demonstrably impacted Applied Materials’ ability to service and sell equipment to its second-largest market, as seen by the estimated $400 million revenue loss in fiscal 2025 and the sharp decline in China’s share of total sales. This risk is further compounded by the discussion of potential reciprocal tariffs on semiconductor products, which could slow down capital spending across the entire industry. 

Investors should also focus on structural tailwinds, particularly the massive technological shift toward advanced-node production driven by AI and data centers, where Applied Materials’ advanced equipment is critical. The company is poised to gain market share as customers transition to new manufacturing architectures like GAA technology, which requires more steps and complex processes handled by Applied Materials’ deposition and etch tools. The global drive towards supply chain regionalization, spurred by government incentives in the U.S. and Europe, mandates the construction of entirely new fabs that require vast quantities of Applied Materials’ core products, helping to offset the risks in the Asia Pacific region.

Frequently Asked Questions

The post Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) Stock Price Prediction: 2025, 2026, 2030 by Ryan Peterson appeared first on Benzinga. Visit Benzinga to get more great content like this.

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