Fantasy Football Week 4 Panic Meter: Anxiety over Ladd McConkey being the Chargers' WR3, Ashton Jeanty's struggles and more

"OK, now the tuxedos seem kinda messed up."

I keep thinking back to the sequence in Step Brothers, where Seth Rogen interviews Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly. The signs were there that things could go awry from the jump. They wore tuxedos to find work at a sporting goods store! But then again, the contrary evidence (their cool demeanor, promising resumes, etc.) was enough to ignore until Dale, well, you know.

Anyway, Week 3 reminded me of two things. First, we don’t know anything. Second, outside of the Colts, there were signals that things might not go as we expected. However, more importantly, as we continue to gather more information about certain situations, it should help us reframe how high our panic level should actually be.

Worrying about a Ladd in Los Angeles

OK, I’m going to give you my playbook in advance. It’s likely the same as most analysts coping with Ladd McConkey being the Chargers’ WR3.

• Proclaim genuine shock about his situation.

• Note how good the offense is with Justin Herbert throwing more.

• Rattle off underlying stats expressing McConkey is still a top WR.

• Preach patience.

A sad story told in four parts. Part 1.

I didn’t have Quentin Johnston turning into Mike Williams (complimentary) on my bingo card. He’s had a touchdown in each game and has averaged eight targets. However, like the Thanos meme, seeing the third-year WR achieve this level of production cost us everything.

• (McConkey) Targets per Route Run: 23.4% (2024), 17.6% (2025)

• Air Yard Share: 26.5%, 18.9%

• Yards per Route Run: 2.40, 1.37

First off, let’s apply a "small-sample" caveat to citing any per-route metrics this early in the season. They don’t tend to stabilize until about 200 routes. Additionally (here comes Part II), let’s contextualize McConkey’s rookie season.

Herbert ranked 23rd in dropbacks per game (33.7). He averaged fewer red-zone pass attempts on a per-game basis (4.9) than Gardner Minshew (5.2). Losing Rashawn Slater and adding Keenan Allen didn’t equate to a throw-first mentality that has the Chargers ranked first in pass rate over expectation. Even still, McConkey’s usage, or lack thereof, shouldn’t be one we try to avoid. Actually, I’ll go a step further. His profile and situation should be the traits we target in trades.

(Part III – it’s data time!)

• Average Yards of Separation: 3.6, 5th (among all WRs – min. 15.0% target share)

• Average Separation Score: 0.21, 6th

• First-Read Target Share*: 23.6%, 2nd (among Chargers’ WRs)

* – throws from a clean pocket in less than 2.5 seconds

(And let’s land the plane with Part IV)

Herbert unleashed is something we’ve wanted to see since his rookie year. McConkey still knows how to shake a corner to create an easy throwing lane and will do the dirty work to spring his teammates for long gains. He just has more competition for work this year. So while the ceiling might be lower than his early-round ADP, the floor for points should come up as the season progresses.

Panic Meter: Moderate

Arthur Smith is at it again

Thinking back to the offseason, D.K. Metcalf’s ADP sat around the WR20. Said another way, we expected him to be a WR1 for his team, but he would function as our WR2. After a team switch, it was a reasonable take. And based on his weekly highlights, the results support the process.

Well, they almost do.

Even after finding himself in the end zone a couple of times, fantasy managers have found Metcalf outside of the top 24 every week. His highest single-game yardage total is 83 yards. He’s yet to clear five catches with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. However, even more concerning is Metcalf’s weak hold on the WR1 job in Pittsburgh.

• Metcalf: 20.7% (target rate), 23.9% (air yard share)

• Calvin Austin III: 18.3%, 54.6%

I feel like I’m getting punk’d. I could’ve sworn it was Metcalf that looked and ran like he came from Wakanda, and Austin (at 5-foot-8-170 pounds) profiled as a typical slot receiver. However, OC Arthur Smith sees things differently.

Austin has been Rodgers’ primary target downfield (53.8%) and has consistently wound up in the end zone. Metcalf is behind the third-year WR in looks on third or fourth down (8 to 2). And the duo has split the red-zone work (3 to 3). However, there are aspects to what we’ve seen from the Rodgers-Metcalf pairing that shouldn’t come off as a surprise.

• Screen Target Rate: 37.5% (2025), 5.6% (2024)

• Air Yards per Target: 6.3, 12.4

• Target Rate on In-breaking Routes: 57.1%, 48.1%

When you think about it, wanting to use your big, fast WR closer to the line of scrimmage and getting the ball in his hands as quickly as possible isn’t the worst idea. The Seahawks didn’t need to do this because they had an efficient receiver who could do this (see Smith-Njigba, Jaxon). But given Rodgers’ preference for a quick release (sixth-fastest average time to throw), seeing Metcalf as the first option at worst indicates the OC and Rodgers are testing what works. It’s only been three weeks. Plus, despite the disappointing boxscore stats, Metcalf’s peripheral marks looked more … Metcalf-y.

• aDOT: 14.4

• Air Yard Share: 62.0%

• Play-Action Target Rate: 40.0%

Yes, with Smith as the OC, the offense will be more balanced (-1% PROE after Week 3). To go with the low volume, Pittsburgh’s offensive line has taken a step back as a pass-blocking unit. But as the Steelers continue to figure out their passing game, expect Metcalf to be leading the charge.

Panic Meter: Low to Moderate

A bad ‘Bill’ of goods

Everyone who drafted Jacory Croskey-Merritt was hoping for the situation that unfolded in Week 3. One of the RBs would phase out of the offense — unfortunately due to injury in this case. Leaving "Bill" to fill the void. So, seeing the results of an Austin Ekeler-less backfield in real time should have been encouraging.

Well, you’d be happy if all you watched was Red Zone. And actually, if Red Zone was on, you could only be watching in the second half. Because the full experience was a rollercoaster.

• Snap Rate: 39.0% (Croskey-Merritt), 39.0% (Chris Rodriguez Jr.), 26.0% (Jeremy McNichols)

• Rushing Attempts: 8, 11, 4

• Goal-Line Carries: 2, 1, 0

Washington’s backfield somehow turned into a hydra with two heads emerging after losing one in Week 2. Each had a role. They even rotated every couple of drives, with Rodriguez getting the official start. Even worse, once McNichols’ turn came, the special teamer was the first of the trio to find himself in the end zone.

Now, if you’re rostering the seventh-round RB and looking for more, there’s (some) hope. I already mentioned Croskey-Merritt’s handle on the goal-line carries. Granted, they didn’t come until the third quarter after Rodriguez got a crack at the paint from the four-yard line. But of the two rushers, it was the preseason hero who converted his opportunities into points. Plus, of the three rushers, they all ran routes, but Croskey-Merritt was the only one to earn a target.

They’re only small leads, but seeing Croskey-Merritt atop the backfield in routes, targets and even short-yardage attempts gives him an edge heading into Week 4. In addition to his performance as a runner, the rookie also held his own as a pass blocker, forcing zero pressures. Things will shift again when Jayden Daniels gets back under center, but for now, I’d still look to Croskey-Merritt as the best bet to produce out of the Commanders’ rushing attack.

Panic Meter: Moderate

Vegas is making us pay

After three weeks of watching Ashton Jeanty turn in fantasy finishes outside the top 20, it warmed my heart watching the football community come together and find the culprit behind this crime.

Defenders have met Jeanty at or behind the line of scrimmage on 32 of his 47 attempts. His minuscule 0.09 adjusted yards before contact are the fewest of any starting RB. Even worse, the rookie’s stacked box rate (how often teams put eight or more players at or close to the formation) is just above the league average. In other words, with typical opposition, the Boise State standout is still one of eight RBs with a rushing success rate under 40.0%. But Vegas let us know this was a possibility last year.

• (2024) Run Block Win Rate: 22nd

• Rushing Success Rate: 30th

• Yards Before Contact per Att.: 32nd

The Raiders returned the same five starters that closed out their ’24 campaign. But all we saw was the good news. HC Pete Carroll and Geno Smith were reuniting. OC Chip Kelly was returning to the NFL, bringing his fast-paced, fantasy-friendly offense, which we watched when he was in Philadelphia. Adding a first-round rusher only further distracted us. And if you think Jeanty is the only one having to adjust to a poor blocking unit, let’s check in on Mr. “I Ain’t Write Back Tho.”

The problems with the Raiders’ run game extend into the passing attack. Geno Smith is one of five starters under duress on over 40.0% of his dropbacks. On third downs, he’s had an average of 8.5 yards to the sticks (fourth-most). And for as aggressive as Smith has been throughout his career (high passing aDOT, above-average time to throw), his penchant for taking sacks is the natural consequence of looking downfield.

For Jeanty, there isn’t a talent issue like the boxscore suggests. His 27.7% forced missed tackle rate ranks fifth among all RBs. And Smith has fueled five top-24 finishes from his pass-catchers. The interior of Vegas’ line struggled at the start of last season, too. They’ll need time to gel to open up rushing lanes and give some time to their new QB. Until then, we can only rely on Jeanty and Smith finding ways to overcome their situation.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

* This article was originally published here