I was in New Orleans earlier this year for the Super Bowl. The city on its own is a vibe, but the energy the fans brought elevated the whole town. Anyway, I was walking by one of the shops in the French Quarter and saw a t-shirt that said:
“I was wondering why the frisbee was getting bigger … then it hit me”
Sundays come at me the same way. Of course, I know they’re there. But the morning of is like trying to catch up on your favorite TV show. There are multiple plotlines and ancillary characters to follow in each game. So, to get me focused, here are a couple from each contest whom I’ll be tracking for Week 7.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets
Rico Dowdle can’t keep doing what he’s doing, right? Well, the Jets are in the bottom half of the league in PPR PPG allowed to RBs. But I’m not solely focused on his results. I’m looking at his opportunity. Dowdle’s 23 and 30 carries over the last two weeks are greater than any of Chuba Hubbard’s single-game counts this season. Along with averaging 4.5 targets per game, if Dowdle continues on this tear, Hubbard may be (should be?) sharing this backfield when he returns.
It's “Tyrod Taylor watch” time in New York. Garrett Wilson will miss the game. Justin Fields only completed nine passes last week against the Broncos. His 15.4% passing success rate was the same back in Week 2 when he only played half of the game. After taking more sacks (9) than completing first-down passes (2), Fields must show he can execute the offense. Otherwise, we might see a change mid-game.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
The vibes couldn’t be worse for Miami. But I’m wondering if Darren Waller can continue to be as useful for fantasy as he was a few weeks ago. On the one hand, the former Giants’ TE is up to a 78% route share after running just 10 in his two-TD debut. However, he saw just three targets against the Chargers. And with the Browns neutralizing most of the competition (giving up just 31.3 YPG, yet to allow a TD to TEs), Waller will have more than just his QB's temperament to deal with on Sunday.
On the positive side, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski has enough faith in Dillon Gabriel for him to attempt 52 passes in his second start. He even got the ball out in 2.51 seconds with a 6.0 aDOT. Simply put, they’re playing it safe. Luckily, the Dolphins have been a softer matchup. They’ve averaged the 10th-lowest pressure rate and surrendered at least two TDs to every QB they’ve faced. If there were a game to allow Gabriel the time to gain his confidence at the pro level, it would be this weekend against Miami.
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
I’m still trying to calibrate to how Saints HC Kellen Moore is deploying Chris Olave this season. Through the first six weeks of any other year, the former Buckeye has come down with multiple deep shots from whomever the Saints had under center. In 2025, Olave has had one such catch, and it didn’t come until last Sunday. With a career-low 9.4-yard aDOT, New Orleans’ WR1 is a more reliable receiver for fantasy purposes with a plus-matchup against the Bears’ secondary.
After seeing Pop Douglas glide past the Saints’ defense for a big score in Week 6, I’d like to think Bears HC Ben Johnson tries something similar with Luther Burden III. Chicago’s rookie WR exited the bye with season highs in route rate (39%) and target share (14%). After an untimely drop by Olamide Zaccheaus in primetime, the door may be open for the rookie to earn more playing time as Caleb Williams and the Bears continue to roll on offense.
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Alright, TreVeyon Henderon Bros, Sunday is our last chance. If we don’t see anything more out of the Patriots’ rookie RB, there’s no more hope left. Yes, I realize Henderson played a season-low 29% of the snaps while Rhamondre Stevenson crossed 50% of the carries for the first time this year. But Henderson did have a greater rushing success rate and averaged more yards per route run than the veteran in what was a poor outing for both RBs. However, if there’s any defense that will give opposing rushers their time to shine, it’s the Titans, who’ve allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game.
I feel bad for Cam Ward. He’s six weeks into his NFL career and is already down his head coach and offensive line coach. To be fair, this same father-son duo was the architect of Ward taking 25 sacks in a month and a half of play, but some level of continuity would be ideal for his development. Now, likely without his WR1, he gets to face a defense coached by the former leader of the Titans, and the same unit that didn’t give up a TD pass in Week 6. I’ll go ahead and pencil him in for three more sacks.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings
Outside of all the drama surrounding the passing game, I’m interested to see if one core piece of the Eagles offense can get off the ground: Their rushing attack. From yards per carry to explosive rushing rate, Saquon Barkley is, at best, a top-24 RB. His output (54.2 rushing YPG) is a far cry from the expectations we had for him as a top-three pick back in August. But against the Vikings, who are allowing 111.6 rushing YPG (sixth-most), the situation sets up for us to see Barkley back at the top of the ranks in Week 7.
As of this writing, it’s unclear if Carson Wentz or J.J. McCarthy will start under center for the Vikings. But we’d have questions about how either would perform against the Eagles defense even if we knew who'd be at QB. The only two passers to complete multiple touchdown throws against Philly’s secondary are Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield. Four of six have finished with less than 200 yards. With how often Philadelphia’s pass rush can force a QB off their spot (37.1% pressure rate), Wentz or McCarthy will have a tough time navigating the pocket on Sunday.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
If there’s any weakness to the Chiefs’ defense, it’s their short-area coverage for RBs. They’ve given up 33.5 receiving yards per game to the position (14th-most). David Montgomery just tagged them for 37 yards, Justice Hill caught five passes for 41 back in Week 4, and Cam Skattebo was a menace as a receiver with a 6-61-0 statline. Ashton Jeanty has averaged three targets per game as the Raiders continue to mold their passing game. If Geno Smith tries to keep things short again, Jeanty should be a viable option to keep the game competitive.
Every analyst will be monitoring Rashee Rice’s usage in his first game back from suspension. Before his injury in 2024, the Chiefs’ slot man was averaging 9.7 targets per game on a 34% share of Patrick Mahomes’ attempts. Of course, the offense has added a couple more options since. So it won’t be just Rice’s involvement in the passing game, but who he displaces to reclaim the WR1 role in Kansas City.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
I want to see the real Colts. Or, more specifically, the truest version of Daniel Jones in this offense. Sure, through six weeks, Jones is the QB9 in PPG. But he’s outside the top 20 in pass attempts per game. Thirty-one of his attempts have come while Indianapolis has had a two-score lead (most of any starting QB). With the injuries to their secondary, we may get the back-and-forth environment necessary for Jones to drop back a few more times to pass. And then, we’ll see if he’s truly improved as a passer.
Independent of Quentin Johnston’s return to the lineup, I’m expecting Ladd McConkey’s position as the “technical” WR1 to continue. The air-quoted descriptor is only because he had one more target than Keenan Allen in Week 6, but McConkey bros will take the win. Plus, Justin Herbert’s adjustment to the weakened offensive line suits McConkey’s pre-snap alignment. Over the past two weeks, Herbert has dropped his passing aDOT from 8.6 air yards to 4.9. McConkey’s aDOT has been less than 10 in five of six games. So while Herbert will still take his shots downfield when he can, moving the offense through his slot receiver should be their best recipe for success.
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
Cam Skattebo is the John Wick of RBs. I don’t know his origin story, but the bits we’ve seen or heard would have me concerned for my safety as a defensive player. But if I were on the other side and sent him to complete "An Impossible Task," it’s a coin flip at best that he gets the job done. He’s had 15 or more touches in four straight weeks and has more than 20 PPR points in all of them. And that’s against the Chiefs, Chargers and Eagles. Sure, the Broncos are allowing the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game. But I have little doubt I’ll check the boxscore Sunday night and see Skattebo with enough all-purpose yards to put him at or near the top of the RB ranks.
I can’t put my finger on it, but something looks off with the Broncos’ passing game. Bo Nix is third in play-action rate, but 28th in passing success rate and 30th in passing aDOT. He’s the same QB who was going toe-to-toe with Joe Burrow at the backend of his rookie season. Over the final half of his rookie campaign, Nix was in the top half of all starters in explosive passing rate. But everything looks muted in ’25. And the Giants’ pass rush likely won’t give him any time to re-establish the swagger we saw from last year.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Matthew Golden got the post-bye rookie bump most fantasy managers wanted to see. His target rate hit a season-high of 19%. Jordan Love looked his way the most of any receiver in obvious passing situations. But the sustainability of his workload is in question. The Packers can feature any of their WRs (or TEs) each week without much of a drop in overall production. But against the Cardinals, who’ve allowed the 12th-most YPG to WRs, at least the environment would suit Golden’s skill set.
Of course, I’m a “correlation does not equal causation” kind of person. But I do find it interesting that in one game with Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride found himself in the end zone with the ball. Granted, McBride only had size red-zone targets coming into Week 6. But Brissett’s ability to operate the offense, sans Marvin Harrison Jr. for most of the contest, was notable. Of course, both will have a tougher time against the Packers’ defense, but this duo will be one to watch while the Kyler Murray speculation continues.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Let’s hope Deebo Samuel Sr. gets some much-needed rest as the team tries to manage a heel injury that’s been hampering him for weeks. Even though the former 49ers receiver earned over 20% of the looks from Jayden Daniels, Samuel would only muster 2.5 yards after the catch per reception (second-lowest on the season). The Cowboys have been everyone’s favorite secondary to target, but the health of Washington’s receiving corps might not allow it to take advantage of the situation.
CeeDee Lamb is expected to return for this game. I want to see how George Pickens handles sharing the spotlight. Not, like, from a mental standpoint, but how much volume will he earn and his level of productivity without the WR1 title. He’s averaged 8.7 targets per game in the three contests Lamb has missed. But with Dak Prescott dropping back to pass 40.3 times each week (fifth-most among active starters), I don’t think Pickens will lose much fantasy value.
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Not to say I don’t like concentrated passing attacks, but I’ll be looking to the ancillary options for Michael Penix Jr. in this game. Sure, more work for Drake London is great. Added targets for Bijan Robinson is even better. But Atlanta is going to need more than explosive plays from their top two weapons. And with San Francisco down a couple of defenders, Week 7 is as good a time as any to get Kyle Pitts involved.
I have no idea who’s healthy for the 49ers. Well, at least in a condition strong enough to play in the game and be productive. Jauan Jennings is, to put it kindly, going through it. George Kittle and Brock Purdy might be back, but they’re healing. Ricky Pearsall is still a week away. Atlanta just put Josh Allen in a blender and kept Buffalo’s offense under 300 yards for the first time all year. With as fast as the Falcons’ defense is playing, just seeing our 49ers’ skill players get through the game might be a win in and of itself.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Thank you, Football Gods, NFL Schedulers and Scriptwriters. I appreciate you all for putting this game in a primetime slot because I have yet to see a Baker Mayfield game live. It’s like needing to watch a magician in person. Maybe there’s some detail you can find to dispel the hype. Because with multiple missing linemen and receivers, Mayfield posting top-five marks in passing YPG, EPA per dropback and rushing EPA is something you have to witness while everyone else is watching.
We finally got the role adjustment for Jameson Williams that we needed for him to get back into fantasy viability. We’ve seen him earn targets from Jared Goff before. Williams just had a 32% share of the looks back in Week 4. But they were mostly downfield (25.1-yard aDOT). In Week 6, things changed. While still maintaining the second-most attempts, the fourth-year wideout’s target depth dropped to 4.6 air yards. In a game against one of the more “pass-funnel” defenses, I’d expect to see more of Williams to complement Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Houston Texans @ Seattle Seahawks
The post-bye rookie bump was a focus for fantasy managers when it came to the Bears and Packers. Houston has a couple of WRs in the same boat. Jayden Higgins entered the Texans’ mid-season break with a 49% route rate and 13% of CJ Stroud’s targets. Typically, I’d look at his involvement as an outlier, but Christian Kirk’s routes and targets have been on the decline since Week 3. As Seattle continues to work through injuries to their secondary, having an interior option alongside Nico Collins would keep Houston’s offense on the move. But it may take another week for Higgins to move into fantasy relevance.
Monday night might be Sam Darnold’s first true test as Seattle’s QB. The Texans are not only one of the better units at getting to the QB (sixth in pressure rate), but their coverage is solid, as well. Three of the five passers to face them have left without a TD pass and at least one interception. Nobody’s crested 250 yards. Darnold has been able to keep the ball out of harm’s way and allow Jaxon Smith-Njigba to do the heavy lifting to keep the offense on schedule. But against the Texans, Darnold and new OC Klint Kubiak will need other answers for a chance to lead the NFC West.
